Top 5 series will look at the top 5 prospects for AFL Fantasy (AFLF) & DreamTeam (DT) from a different category.
Today we look at Young Guns who have been in the system and are looking to have a breakout season.
Clay Beams (MID) – $198,800 (DT) $187,400 (AFLF) – The former NAB rising star nominee is back after recovering from an ACL injury last season. Beams the brother of Pie Dayne, dominated in the NEAFL in 2012 averaging 23 possessions. With the exudous of Lions over the summer, Beams has a chance to secure a spot in the Lions team over the NAB Challenge.
Gary Rohan (FWD) – $176,600 (DT) $138,400 (AFLF) – After suffering a broken leg in the now infamous sliding tackle, Rohan managed to return late in the season to play three home and away games at an average of 32.33ppg Despite never showing real Fantasy scores in his past, the former number 6 pick has the potential to be a solid early season Cash Cow.
Christian Howard (DEF) – $169,300 (DT) $135,500 (AFLF) – At 22 this season it is now or never for Howard. Playing 17 games in the VFL averaging 17 possessions per game, Howard has failed to live up to the expectations of a first round pick. If he can get good amount of game time early in the preseason, he could be a handy underpriced player in our defence.
Billy Longer (RUCK) – $239,000 (DT) $194,400 (AFLF) – The move to the Saints will mean Longer will be contesting for the number one ruck spot with fellow young ruck Tom Hickey. Picked at number 8, Longer demonstrated he has the potential to be a solid ruck in the future, dominating the NEAFL averaging 45 hitouts per game. Watch his preseason to see whether he can claim the number one ruck position at the Saints.
Jeremy Laidler (DEF) – $167,200 (DT) $135,500 (AFLF) – Averaged 66 ppg from 19 games in 2011 under Ratten and was considered a vital cog in the Blues defence. Despite returning from injury Malthouse did not have the same confidence in Laidler, playing only 1 game in 2013 for a score of 34. With injuries and retirement in the Swans defence, look for Laidler to be given opportunities early in the season.
Top 5 series will look at the top 5 prospects for AFL Fantasy (AFLF) & DreamTeam (DT) from a different category
Today we look at Ruckmen who have the potential to be stars, but are under appreciated heading into the AFL Fantasy and DreamTeam season. It’s easy to select Cox, Naitanui or last years AA Ruck Will Minson with Aaron Sandilands a popular selection as your second Ruck. Here are some options you may usually scroll past.
Sam Jacobs (Ruck) $409,900 (DT) $406700 (AFLF) – After averaging 88 and 87 during 2011/12 respectively, the “Big Sauce” had a poor season by his own admission, averaging 12 points less per game in 2013. After a solid preseason where Sauce has reportedly lost weight to increase his aerobic capabilities, he will be looking to bounce back to the form that had many calling him the premier big-man in 2012.
Matthew Leuenberger (RUCK) $465,100 (DT) $461,500 (AFLF) Returning from injury last season Leuenberger grew as the season progressed and average 85.2 ppg* for the season. In 2011 Leuenberger averaged 92 points per game and showed signs that as the sole ruck he can achieve those heights again. At $465,100 I believe he is still slightly underpriced and potentially the best scoring ruckman in the competition.
Matthew Kreuzer (RUCK) $472,900 (DT) $469,200 (AFLF) – Kreuzer had an improved year last season and excelled from the midpoint of the season after returning from a thumb injury. Kruzer demonstrated that while he may not be the best ruckman at the bounce, his ability to move around the ground and collect possessions or move forward and kick a goal can compensate for that deficiency.
Matthew Lobbe (RUCK) $442,800 (DT) $439,300 (AFLF) – Lobbe, a former first round pick, demonstrated that he has the potential to be a bonafide A-Grader in the latter half of the season. Blossiming like many other ruckman in his mid 20’s (24) from round 12 he was ranked the 4th best Ruck in the competition and averaged 35 hit outs a game. From round 12-23 Lobbe averaged 88 points per game. In his two finals games he average 94.5 as a sole Ruck. Lobbe is a unique option who will go under the radar of many coaches. Buying him early could provide you an edge over the rest of the competition.
Hamish McIntosh (RUCK) $297,800 (DT) $344,700 (AFLF) – After an injury ravaged past few season, McIntosh will be looking to repay the faith shown by the Cats in recruiting him to the club. Playing only 8 games in the 3 previous seasons, McIntosh is a huge risk, but one worth taking if his preseason form is solid. At his best he could score upwards of 80+ as a ruck/forward. Geelong has a weak ruck stock and McIntosh could be the missing piece this season.
Name: Dale “Daisy” Thomas Club: Carlton Blues Position: Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $346,400 AFL Dream Team: $328,600
Dale “Daisy” Thomas spent 2013 on the sideline with constant ankle issues hampering his ability to get on the park. Playing only 5 games from round 3-7, Daisy’s average dropped 18 ppg* from 93 to 75 AFLFantasy points.
An offseason move from the Pies to their bitter rival the Blues will see Daisy reunited with his mentor and his coach of 7 out of 8 years in the system Mick Malthouse. This relationship cannot be understated and will allow Thomas to regain the confidence he needs to be a successful AFL player. Thomas averaged 95 in 2010, 103 in 2011 and 93 in 2012. Daisy’s 2013 average of 75 ppg* was impacted by starting as a sub in round 4 against the Tigers and only managing 35 AFLF*
points. In his 4 other games coming back from injury and no preseason he still managed to average 86 points per game.
Why should I recruit Daisy Thomas?
For all the reasons provided above. Daisy at his best is an All-Australian calibre player. He has the ability to play multiple positions and can kick goals when afforded the opportunity. Daisy is the ideal player that we typically look for in AFL Fantasy/Dream Team competitions. He is a premium player who has a lower price due to injuries. Last season we saw Brendon Goddard another high profile free agent switch teams and he played tremendously, highlighting that free agents can change teams and maintain good scoring output.
Why should I avoid picking Daisy Thomas?
You should avoid Daisy if it appears like he is still struggling to recover from injury during the preseason. He is also at a new club and it can take time for players and their team mates time to build chemistry and get accustom to playing with one another.
Daisy Thomas is an underpriced premium and should be strongly considered as a starting 8 midfielder. You should look closely at Daisy especially in AFL Fantasy where rookie players are of a higher value and you need to save some of your cap for premium players. At his best Daisy can be a damaging outside player capable of racking up possessions, ideal for a fantasy player.
Top 5 series will look at the top 5 prospects for AFL Fantasy (AFLF) & DreamTeam (DT) In different categories.
Today we look at underpriced premium midfielders who have the potential to be premiums by seasons end. I’ve classified underpriced as $100k under the highest priced Midfielder Stevie Johnson.
Bryce Gibbs (MID) $485,300 – Now that Gibbs has lost his defender eligibility, he is no longer a walk up starter in our Fantasy sides. Gibbs average 89 AFLF points per game last season, down on the numbers he achieved throughout 2009 – 2011 where he averaged 107, 96 and 107 respectively playing loose on half back. Gibbs has the potential to be a 100+ a week player again but all depends on where Mick plays him throughout the season. Watch his preseason to see whether he plays a role conducive to fantasy scoring.
Brandon Ellis (MID) – $429,300 (DT) – Wearing the vest 5 times last season, his average out of the vest in 15 games was 98ppg. Ellis demonstrated he has the potential to score big, scoring 143 and 155 during the season. Now entering his third season, known commonly as the breakout year, Ellis is a lock in the Tigers 22. With the quality of Cotchin, Deledio and Martin, Ellis is well down the pecking order of who to tag, allowing him to run free and rack up the ball averaging 4th at the club for uncontested possession at 75%.
Dale Thomas (MID) $328,600 (DT) – Thomas spent 2013 on the sideline with constant ankle issues hampering his ability to get on the park. Playing only 5 games from round 3-7, Daisy’s average dropped 18 ppg* from 93 to 75 AFLFantasy points. Underpriced in both games AFL Fantasy: $346,400 and AFL Dream Team: $328,600, if fit Daisy is a lock in all Fantasy sides this season.
Jack Redden (MID) – $518,200 (DT) – Redden has demonstrated that he has the potential to be a superstar of the competition. The young South Australian has average 109, 103 and 95 over the last 3 seasons. If provided with the right opportunity, Redden could return to the highlights of his 2011 season and average upwards of 110 AFLF points per game.
Marc Murphy (MID) $467,200(DT) – Injuries have worried murphy over the past two seasons. Murphy average 86 last season, down from 101 in 2012 and 111 in 2011. Murphy had a difficult first year as Blues captain, struggling with the tag and a facial injury midseason. At his best Murphy is one of the most consistent players in the game. Watch his preseason and lock him in if he looks like he has found the form he had prior to his collarbone injury in 2012.
Taylor Walker (Fwd) – $268,300 (DT) – Don’t select Walker in round one but watch his form as he comes back from his ACL in the early stages of the season. His injury influenced average of 61 is well down on his output of 87 (AFLF) points per game in 2012.
Dale Thomas (MID) – $328,600 (DT) – Thomas spent 2013 on the sideline with constant ankle issues hampering his ability to get on the park. Playing only 5 games from round 3-7, Daisy’s average dropped 18 ppg* from 93 to 75 AFLFantasy points. Underpriced in both games AFL Fantasy: $346,400 and AFL Dream Team: $328,600, if fit Daisy is a lock in all Fantasy sides this season.
Matt Suckling (Def) – $316,800 (DT) – Suckling returns after injuring his knee during the 2013 NAB Cup. A key link in the Hawks defence, setting up play from half back and the wing, Suckling managed to average 91 in 2011 and 83 in 2012. At only 25, Suckling should manage to find his way back into the Premiers. Watch his preseason to monitor whether he is back to fall fitness and ready to go for Round 1.
Aaron Sandilands – $270,800 (DT) – Sandilands career has soured over the past few seasons playing only 37 games in the last 3 years. At his best he regularly averaged in the 90s, but being fit enough to play regularly is the big question. Selecting Sandilands is a big gamble and one you may need to consider.
Nic Naitanui – $423,100 (DT) Nic Nat had a difficult year coming off his All Australian 2012 season. Playing only 11 games in 2013. Returning in Round 6 as the Sub, Nic Nat went on to produce 80+ points per game scores in the following six matches. However injury and lack of fitness due to preseason meant Naitanui finished the season with four average scores in the 60’s (62,68,69 &63). Averaging 77 ppg down from86 in 2012, a fit and ready NicNat could be the premium Ruck in all fantasy games this season.
Name: Patrick “Danger” Dangerfield Club: Adelaide Crows Position: Forward/Midfield
AFL Fantasy: $534,700 AFL Dream Team: $538,900
Who else could it have been! For those long term readers, my evident admiration of Dangerfield is about to be once again on display. Danger along with Rory Sloane have recently been made Vice-Captains of the Football Club. This has more impetuous this season as Captain Nathan Van Berlo will miss the majority if not entire 2014 season after sustaining an Achilles injury, making Dangerfield and Sloane joint acting captains.
Why should I recruit Patrick Dangerfield?
Sensationally will be available as a Forward/Midfielder in 2014 and is an absolute no brainer for any Fantasy player. Dangerfield at his best is one of the premier midfielders in the competition, with blistering pace and the ability to win the contested ball, Dangerfield is an unstoppable force in attack and in the midfield. Lock him in from round 1!
Why should I avoid picking Patrick Dangerfield?
We saw in 203 the burden captaincy can have on young players (Marc Murphy & Jack Trengove). If you support Port Adelaide andreally HATE the Crows… This is the only reason not to select this Superstar as a Forward in 2014.
First picked Forward of 2014 Patrick Dangerfield (Fwd/Mid) $534700 (AFLF) & $538,900 (DT) (FORWARD LOCK) –
To celebrate the beginning of the official DreamTeam season we’ve brought back a favourite article from last year to kick off the season. The Premium (Defenders)
Knowing what Premiums to select can be the biggest battle in AFL DreamTeam. You need to get these players into your starting side as soon as possible to maximise the points you score each round. Below is a look at 6 Defenders that could potentially be your final six premiums by seasons end.
Pearce Hanley (DEF) – $467,300 (DT) – Hanley proved to be a game breaker and ultra consistent over the past 3 seasons with averages of 80, 83 and 86 despite being tagged heavily in 2013. Hanley has proven himself as a capable midfielder who can play in defence and also in attack. He has the ability to beat his opponent one on one which makes it incredibly difficult to nullify his influence on the game. Look at Hanley as a lock in your defence in all Fantasy games this season.
Ricky Henderson (Def) $435100 (AFLF) & $438,600 (DT) – Despite strong interest from Collingwood and reports he wanted to return home to Victoria, Henderson will line up again for the Crows and looms as one of the most fascinating players in 2014. From round 14-20 was the premier defender in fantasy football, racking up possessions and looked to have found a home on Adelaide half back line. A jump of 29 points per game to an average of 80 in 2013 makes his a more expensive proposition. The Crows began to show greater form in the latter half of the season with Henderson finding a home at Half-Back. Despite the doubts on Henderson’s body , he is worth considering if he can stay fit and out on the park.
Andrew Walker (DEF) $473,700 (DT) – Walker had an elite season with a permanent move to the backline allowing the former number 2 pick to show the immense potential we had only seen in glimpse. an improvement of 13 points per game in 2013 to 87 places Walker in the premium category for defenders this season. Walker should be strongly considered as one of your first locks of 2014.
Sam Mitchell (DEF) $521,800 (DT) – Despite continually decreasing scores from 112 p.p.g. in 2011, 102 in 2012 and 96 in 2013, Mitchell is prime fantasy value, being moved into defence. As a Defender Mitchell ranks the second highest value behind McVeigh. Mitchell has the ability to average 100 plus per game, however his real strength is his consistency. Mitchell should be one of the first selected in your sides this season.
Jarrad McVeigh (DEF) $534,100 (DT) – With a move to the half back flank to cover injuries (Shaw) and retirement (Mattner) McVeigh highlighted his ability to read the play and be the go through player in the Swans defence. McVeigh averaged 98 AFLF points per game, the highest of any classified defender in 2014. At only 28, McVeigh is in the prime of his career and should be the first picked in all fantasy sides in 2014.
Garrick Ibbotson (DEF) $504,200 (DT) – Despite playing only 13 games last season Ibbotson averaged 92.31 and became a versatile link player behind the ball for the Dockers. Ibbotson average 22 points per game greater in 2013 and was ranked number 1 in the club for marks. He was also ranked in the top 5 for both contested and uncontested ball. Ibbotson was also a great reader of the play, ranking as the number one interceptor for his position in the AFL. If, and it is a big IF! Ibbotson can stay fit he will be a popular selection in peoples Defence in 2014.
The preseason is well underway and with Christmas/New Years just around the corner the new football season will be upon us shortly. Stay tuned to our blog, i’ll be posting regular updates throughout the year on AFL news and Fantasy insight. Many people asked what gives me the right to provide advice. Well, as a player of AFL DreamTeam Fantasy entering into my 12th season and finishing again in the top 100 this season at 67th I have a fair idea of how to implement a successful strategy to do well.
I also have comments from people who say that I should not write an AFL blog as there are already others doing the same thing, like DreamTeam Talk and SuperCoach Paige. In know way do I believe I’m in competition with those fantastic websites. My blog is one persons opinion and my own outlet for thinking about AFL Fantasy. I regularly enjoy reading the content on both websites and watching and listening to their shows. If an article I produce is copied on another (Fantasy Hold’em), i’ve taken it as a compliment and not worried about calling out others. You can either read it or not, it’s not something worth getting upset about.
This season I’ll be taking a more laid back approach to the content I produce on the website. I’ll post regularly about my thoughts on the upcoming season and some of the strategies i’ve decided to implement. This upcoming Fantasy season has already thrown coaches a few curve balls. The increase in price for rookie players will add a new dynamic to the game and will make it more difficult for players to make complete teams. This season all the hard work of getting a team of premiums early was wasted come finals time when most teams had identical teams. The increase in rookie players should also bring in more mid-price players, who are returning from injury or coming off poor seasons.
The introduction of unlimited trades until Round 2 also brings with it new opportunities to try something unique. At this stage i’m planning on loading my bench with minimum priced players for Round 1 and using the value of the cap to get the best players possible for Round 1. Remember your team for the year does not need to be set until Round 2.
The change to a 2 game rolling average will also add a new dynamic to the game. It will be interesting to see how the price of players is influenced by this change.
Have a great Christmas and New Year and i’ll be back just in time for February 1st and the start of the new AFL Fantasy season.