Believe the Hype – Round 4 Preview

Believe the Hype – Round 4 Preview

This weekly article will look at who is being HYPED this week as a MUST have buy in AFL DreamTeam and SuperCoach and other HYPED issues of the week.

1) IN – Sam Mayes for OUT- Travis Varcoe
Trading out Varcoe is a no brainer. If you are a regular reader of this column you would have noticed i’ve been telling to get of Varcoe from the very beginning. He has never been a fantasy relevant player, even at his low $200,000 price.

Now the question of whether to bring in Sam Mayes after one good performance against the Suns is interesting. Mayes last seasons number 8 selection continued a trend of Brisbane taking highly rated SA juniors (Redden & Polec). Mayes as a junior highlighted his team first mentality leading the U18 SA team in pressure acts, a statistic looked upon favourably in any AFL side. He also has the ability to drift between midfield and forward and make himself a dangerous target.

Even at his premium rookie price of $152,200 he is worth the extra value. I personally would hold off one more week and see how he performs this week against the Kangaroos. With Stringer (Bulldogs) debuting this weekend you might find a better option.

Top 5 Ins and out
1 Mayes, S 8.17%
2 Westhoff, J 8.12%
3 Rowe, S 6.61%
4 Crouch, B 4.75%
5 Leuenberger, M 4.67%

1) Mayes (See above).
2) Westhoff has surprised everyone with his tremendous early season form leading all players with an average of 131.3 and a breakeven of -20. Priced at $463,600 Westhoff is bound to go over the $500,000 mark in the next week. I would not expect him to maintain this average but he should be able to score around 80 the next few weeks. This will allow him into increase further in value and allow you to sideways or downgrade to any other forward in the game. HELLO BUDDY!

3) Rowes value in the Carlton side should only increase now Kreuzer is out injured with a broken thumb. He looks to be one of the only tall players in the Carlton side capable of taking a strong mark. His ruck work is also above the others as he clearly looks to palm the ball to roving midfielders unlike the other 2nd string ruckman in the side who are content with just making contact with the ball. With Forward/Ruck eligibility he is a no brainer

4)Crouch had another solid game for the Crows. Alot of his work goes unnoticed inside a contest or with a quick handball from a stoppage. He has class and will improve all year. With the injury to captain Nathan Van Berlo and a lack of form to Vince (dropped), Porplyzia and a host of second string midfielders at the Crows, Crouch looks like he will be in the side for the long term.

5)If you don’t already have Leuenberger than this is the week to bring him in. He is underpriced at $233,600 and has started solidly averaging 73.5 with scores of 74 and 73 in his first two games from injury. As the season progresses he will find form and confidence and could be a top 5 ruckman by seasons end.

1 Varcoe, T 13.56%
2 Patton, J 9.20%
3 Kreuzer, M 8.18%
4 Zorko, D 4.99%
5 Pavlich, M 3.42%
The injury curse struck 4 of these players, Varcoe (Shoulder), Patton (ACL), Kreuzer (Thumb) and Pavlich (Achilles). All were worth the risk but unfortunately have all now suffered long term injuries and should be traded out ASAP.

Dayne Zorko is a dilemma. He has dropped $47,100 last week and goes into round 4 with a breakeven of 134. If you read this blog you will know i traded him out after round 1 for Kennedy to make cash.

Here are your options
1) Decide whether to jump onto Westhoff to remake the money you lost.
2) Move Cox into the Forward line and select Leuenberger to make money or select Todd Goldstein who is valued at $432,700 and is averaging 100 points per game to start the season.
3) Take a punt on one of the Eagles Forwards. The Eagles draw opens up until the bye with games against Carlton (H), Port Adelaide (A), Western Bulldogs (H), Brisbane (A), North Melbourne (H), GWS Giants (A), Richmond (H) and St. Kilda (A). All these games are winnable by the Eagles and they avoid the top 7 teams from last season (playing North Melbourne who finished 8th).

Josh J. Kennedy still has a breakeven of -12 and at $335,700 still has a lot of money to make. Mark LeCras despite a broken arm is playing with a guard and is averaging 81.5 with a breakeven of 47 heading into this weekend.

This week if you have the luxury of not having injuries you should still be looking to bring in rookies who will increase in value. Here are my top five in order of importance who are under $150k

1) Dean Terlich (DEF), Value $102,700 B/E -70
2) Sam Rowe (FWD/RUCK), Value $108,500 B/E -63
3) Brad Crouch (MID), Value $108,500 B/E -61
4) Jack Hutchins (DEF) Value $108,500 B/E -57
5) Sam Dwyer (MID) Value $141,600 B/E -57

What are your thoughts? Who are you bringing in and trading out this week?

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